Q&A: What the Philippines Should Anticipate from a Future Trump Administration Regarding China

Q1: What was Donald Trump’s stance on the 2016 UNCLOS ruling that favored the Philippines?
A1: During his presidency, Donald Trump acknowledged the 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration, which stated that China has no historical rights in the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). While he welcomed the decision, his administration did not take significant actions to enforce the ruling against China and often focused on bilateral negotiations instead.

Q2: How did the Trump administration support the Philippines in terms of defense?
A2: The Trump administration maintained a strong defense relationship with the Philippines, emphasizing mutual defense agreements and continuing joint military exercises. This support was crucial in helping the Philippines address the increasing assertiveness of China in the South China Sea.

Q3: What approach might a future Trump administration take regarding military cooperation with the Philippines? 
A3: A future Trump administration is likely to reaffirm military cooperation with the Philippines, focusing on security assistance and joint military exercises designed to counterbalance Chinese influence in the region.

Q4: Will a future Trump administration confront China directly? 
A4: Based on Trump’s past foreign policy, he may continue to avoid direct military confrontation with China, favoring a negotiation-based approach and trade agreements instead. The administration is expected to adopt a more pragmatic stance while supporting regional allies.

Q5: How could economic relations between the U.S. and the Philippines evolve under Trump?
A5: If re-elected, Trump may emphasize “America First” policies, leading to an increased focus on mutually beneficial trade agreements. This could enhance economic relations between the U.S. and the Philippines as long as they align with American interests.

Q6: What are the implications for Philippine relations with China if Trump returns to office? 
A6: A future Trump administration is likely to adopt a more confrontational stance toward China, potentially aligning more closely with allies in the region like the Philippines. This could result in strengthened diplomatic support for Philippine territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Q7: In summary, what can the Philippines generally expect from a Trump administration?
A7: The Philippines can generally expect continued military support, cautious but vocal diplomatic reassurance against China, and an emphasis on economic relations. However, direct confrontations and enforcement of international rulings may remain limited.