China’s Gray Zone Tactics: Lessons from Ukraine for the Philippines

Why the World Watches Ukraine While the Philippines Simmers

By WPS.News

Baybay City, Leyte, Philippines | November 26, 2024 — The ongoing war in Ukraine has captivated the world’s attention. News outlets overflow with updates on troop movements, battlefield victories, and the plight of Ukrainian refugees. This global focus stands in stark contrast to the simmering tensions in the South China Sea, where China’s assertive actions against the Philippines bear an unsettling resemblance to Russia’s playbook in Ukraine.

China’s “gray zone tactics” mirror those employed by Russia on the Ukrainian border. These tactics involve using paramilitary forces, maritime militia vessels, and economic coercion to exert pressure without resorting to outright military conflict. China’s land reclamation activities in the disputed Spratly Islands, its harassment of Filipino fishermen, and its disregard for international tribunals all echo Russia’s gradual encroachment on Ukrainian sovereignty.

Despite the parallels, the international response to these situations has been vastly different. The war in Ukraine has triggered a wave of sanctions against Russia, a coordinated military response from NATO, and an outpouring of humanitarian aid for Ukraine. In the South China Sea, the reaction has been more muted. While some nations have expressed concern, there has been no comparable collective action to deter Chinese aggression.

This disparity in attention raises several questions. Is the world turning a blind eye to the Philippines’ plight? Are the strategic interests of the West more aligned with Ukraine than with Southeast Asia? Or is there something unique about the Ukraine situation that compels a more forceful response?

There are likely several factors at play. The historical and cultural ties between Europe and Ukraine may make the conflict feel closer to home for Western nations. Additionally, the potential for a wider European war adds a layer of urgency to the situation. The Philippines, geographically distant and facing a different kind of pressure, may not resonate as strongly.

However, the lack of international attention should not diminish the seriousness of the situation in the South China Sea. China’s actions pose a significant threat to regional stability and the Philippines’ territorial integrity. The world community must find ways to address China’s assertive behavior and uphold the principles of international law, both in Europe and in Asia.

This is not to suggest that the situations are identical. Ukraine faces a full-blown military invasion, while the Philippines contends with a more nuanced form of coercion. But the underlying strategic concerns are similar: the desire of a powerful nation to redraw borders and exert dominance over a weaker neighbor.

The international community must learn from the crisis in Ukraine and ensure that the Philippines’ situation does not escalate further. Ignoring the echoes of gray zone tactics in the South China Sea could have severe consequences for regional security and the global order.