Tensions Rise in the West Philippine Sea: Marcos Jr.’s Cautious Approach Faces Inevitable Collision

By: Cliff Potts, WPS News, Editor-in-Chief
Baybay City | January 31, 2025

As observers of the West Philippine Sea situation would agree, it seems we are witnessing the slowest train wreck in history. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has adopted a notably cautious stance in dealing with China’s maritime assertiveness, showing a reluctance to engage in direct conflict at sea. This strategy, while prudent in some respects, raises concerns about the implications for the Philippines and regional stability.

Before I shut down my “X” account, I received confirmation from reliable sources regarding Marcos Jr.’s approach, which emphasizes international law and collaboration with other Southeast Asian nations within the South China Sea. This diplomatic tactic seeks to create a united front against Chinese aggression. Interestingly, it has been observed that China’s responses to Vietnam have been less aggressive, possibly due to Vietnam’s own firm stance against Chinese encroachment.

However, the specter of armed conflict looms larger as China’s actions in the region continue to provoke tensions. Analysts, including Ray Powell, a retired USAF intelligence operative, have noted the complexities involved: while there are laws and court rulings favoring the Philippines, the enforcement of these rules remains an open question. The reality is that the responsibility for defending the West Philippine Sea lies primarily with the Armed Forces of the Philippines.

Despite the gravity of the situation, Marcos Jr. appears more inclined to endure economic hardship for his people rather than initiate a military response against China. This dichotomy creates a precarious scenario, likened to two trains on a collision course, where one hopes the other will somehow slow down and change direction. The risks of this strategy are palpable, and the burden falls heavily on the vulnerable Filipino fisherfolk, who must navigate these turbulent waters.

As the tide of tension continues to rise, the situation in the West Philippine Sea remains a pivotal point of concern for not only the Philippines but the entire Southeast Asian region. The world watches closely, waiting to see whether diplomatic efforts will yield peace or if an inevitable clash is on the horizon.