By Cliff Potts
Chief Strategy Officer, Editor-in-Chief, WPS News

Persistent Tensions Near Sabina (Escoda) Shoal

Incidents in the West Philippine Sea between December 19 and 20 did not occur in isolation. They represent the continuation of a sustained pattern of Chinese maritime pressure within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), particularly around Sabina (Escoda) Shoal.

The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) reported multiple dangerous encounters involving Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessels maneuvering aggressively near Filipino fishing boats. These actions followed earlier December incidents in which Chinese vessels used high-pressure water cannons and blocking maneuvers against Filipino civilian boats, injuring fishermen and damaging equipment. Philippine authorities released video footage, vessel tracking data, and sworn testimony to support their claims (GMA Integrated News, 2025).

Manila formally lodged diplomatic protests, describing the actions as dangerous, inhumane, and inconsistent with international maritime norms. Chinese officials rejected the accusations, asserting that their vessels were conducting lawful maritime enforcement and accusing the Philippines of provocation (Reuters, 2025a; Reuters, 2025b).

Official Positions and Public Statements

On December 19 and 20, the Philippine Department of National Defense reiterated that China’s actions — including water cannon use, close-quarters blocking, and obstruction of civilian fishing activity — do not constitute legitimate law enforcement. Defense officials emphasized that such maneuvers violate basic safety standards at sea and place civilian lives at risk.

Defense spokesperson Arsenio R. Andolong stated that claims of exaggeration or distortion were unfounded, adding that Philippine evidence documented the incidents clearly and consistently (BWorld Online, 2025).

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. reinforced the national position with a direct public statement affirming Philippine sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea, declaring that “what’s ours is ours” and underscoring Manila’s refusal to relinquish legal maritime rights (Philstar, 2025).

China’s foreign ministry and defense spokespeople continued to deny wrongdoing, maintaining that Chinese vessels acted appropriately within what Beijing considers its jurisdiction and warning against further Philippine presence near contested shoals.

International Context and OSINT Signals

Open-source intelligence monitoring, including publicly available footage and situational updates circulated on X (formerly Twitter), showed Philippine agencies amplifying video releases to document Chinese maneuvers. Analysts and regional observers highlighted the proximity of vessels, risky interception behavior, and the targeting of civilian fishing boats as evidence of unprofessional conduct at sea.

International reactions followed quickly. The United States and several allied governments publicly expressed support for the Philippines, urging adherence to international maritime law and restraint in contested waters. U.S. officials reiterated that aggressive actions against Philippine vessels undermine regional stability and violate established norms (BWorld Online, 2025).

Civilian Initiatives and the Limits of Private Action

It must be stated clearly that, due to the complete absence of public, private, official, or unofficial support, the proposed civilian maritime security concepts referred to as Stealth Runner and Kraken’s Kiss are no longer viable options for contributing to security in the West Philippine Sea. These initiatives were examined and discussed as potential civilian-side deterrence, monitoring, and documentation concepts, but without any institutional, legal, financial, or operational backing, they cannot proceed. WPS News will continue publishing analytical essays documenting what Kraken’s Kiss and Stealth Runner were intended to be, and why they failed to materialize, so that a permanent public record exists of what was attempted on the civilian side of the Filipino equation without assistance from Philippine authorities. At this point, all remaining avenues of action rest entirely with the Philippine government, the Navy, the Coast Guard, and the Armed Forces of the Philippines. No private or civilian alternatives remain available through WPS News.

Analysis: What December 19–20 Reveals

The events of December 19–20 reinforce a hard reality: pressure in the West Philippine Sea is sustained, normalized, and unresolved. Chinese maritime forces continue to employ coercive tactics that fall below the threshold of armed conflict while steadily eroding the safety of civilian activity and the authority of international law.

Manila’s transparency strategy — releasing footage, timelines, and official documentation — is designed to counter denial and build international awareness. While it has increased diplomatic backing, it has not altered Beijing’s operational behavior.

Absent meaningful enforcement mechanisms or a binding regional framework with teeth, the Philippines faces ongoing risk at sea — not as a sudden escalation, but as a persistent condition. The December incidents underscore why the West Philippine Sea remains one of the most volatile maritime flashpoints in the region.

References (APA)

BWorld Online. (2025, December 18). Philippines rejects China claim of ‘hyping’ sea clash.
https://www.bworldonline.com/the-nation/2025/12/18/720019/philippines-rejects-china-claim-of-hyping-sea-clash/

GMA Integrated News. (2025, December 13). 3 Filipino fishermen hurt as China water cannons PH boats at Escoda Shoal.
https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/969457/

Philstar. (2025, December 20). President Marcos on West Philippine Sea: What’s ours is ours.
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2025/12/20/2495552/

Reuters. (2025a, December 16). Philippines to protest China’s actions that injured Filipino fishermen.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/

Reuters. (2025b, December 17). China says Philippines distorted facts about incident near disputed atoll.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/

For more social commentary, please see Occupy 2.5 at https://Occupy25.com

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