By Cliff Potts, CSO, and Editor-in-Chief of WPS News

Baybay City, Leyte, Philippines — March 28, 2026

Overview

The reporting period was marked by sustained Chinese pressure across multiple domains rather than a single decisive event. The clearest developments were a flare incident against a Philippine Coast Guard aircraft near Mischief Reef, continuing pressure on Filipino fishermen around Bajo de Masinloc, a reported earlier fire-control radar targeting incident disclosed by the Philippine Navy, and a near-collision involving BRP Benguet and a Chinese missile frigate near Pag-asa Island on March 25 (Dava, 2026a; Dava, 2026b; Philippine News Agency [PNA], 2026a; Reuters, 2026).

On the diplomatic side, Manila kept formal channels open with Beijing while also deepening external defense ties, most notably through the signing of a visiting forces pact with France on March 26 (Reuters, 2026). Weather conditions were not a major driver of events during the week (PAGASA, 2026a).

Diplomatic Developments

The week’s main diplomatic development was the March 26 signing in Paris of a Philippines–France visiting forces agreement. Both sides tied the pact to broader regional security concerns and reaffirmed support for a rules-based order and peaceful dispute resolution (Reuters, 2026).

At the same time, the Department of Foreign Affairs confirmed that the Philippines and China would resume bilateral talks on March 28 in Quanzhou. This reflects a dual-track approach: strengthening external defense partnerships while maintaining direct communication with Beijing (PNA, 2026b).

Maritime Activity (Surface)

On March 25, BRP Benguet encountered a People’s Liberation Army Navy missile frigate near Pag-asa Island. Philippine authorities described the Chinese vessel’s maneuver as unsafe and unprofessional, with a real risk of collision (Dava, 2026b; Reuters, 2026; PNA, 2026c).

Separately, the Philippine Navy disclosed that earlier in March, a Chinese corvette directed fire-control radar at BRP Miguel Malvar. This is significant because fire-control radar is associated with weapons systems, not routine navigation (PNA, 2026a).

The Philippines and the United States also conducted a bilateral maritime cooperative activity in waters off Bataan and Zambales, reinforcing interoperability and presence in western approaches (PNA, 2026d).

Air Activity

On March 20, a Philippine Coast Guard aircraft conducting maritime domain awareness operations over the Kalayaan Island Group was met with flares fired from Chinese-controlled Mischief Reef and repeated radio challenges (Dava, 2026a).

No aircraft damage or loss was reported. However, the use of flares represents continued extension of coercive behavior into the air domain (Dava, 2026a).

Fisherfolk and Civilian Activity

Filipino fishermen operating near Bajo de Masinloc continued to face pressure. The Philippine Coast Guard reported that Chinese “clearing operations” were intended to intimidate local fishing activity (Dava, 2026c).

In response, the PCG and BFAR deployed vessels to support and protect more than 20 Filipino fishing boats (Dava, 2026c). On March 27, the PCG also assisted a distressed fishing vessel, reinforcing state presence in the area (Philippine Coast Guard, 2026).

Security Incidents

Key incidents during the period include:

  • Flares fired near a PCG aircraft over Mischief Reef (March 20) (Dava, 2026a)
  • Near-collision involving BRP Benguet and a Chinese warship near Pag-asa (March 25) (Dava, 2026b; PNA, 2026c)
  • Ongoing harassment of Filipino fishermen at Bajo de Masinloc (Dava, 2026c)
  • Disclosure of prior fire-control radar targeting of a Philippine Navy vessel (PNA, 2026a)

These incidents reflect continued operational pressure across multiple domains without direct kinetic engagement.

Weather and Sea Conditions

Weather conditions were generally stable. PAGASA reported the transition away from the northeast monsoon and the presence of easterlies bringing partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers (PAGASA, 2026a; PAGASA, 2026b).

No gale warning was in effect, and no low-pressure area was under monitoring as of March 27 (PAGASA, 2026c; PAGASA, 2026d). Maritime conditions were broadly favorable for operations.

Seismic and Geophysical Activity

No significant seismic or volcanic activity affecting the West Philippine Sea was reported by PHIVOLCS during the period. No tsunami advisories were issued (PHIVOLCS, 2026a; PHIVOLCS, 2026b).

Assessment

The reporting period reflects continued normalization of gray-zone operations rather than any sudden escalation.

Chinese activities remained consistent: challenge patrol aircraft, pressure fishing activity, conduct unsafe maritime maneuvers, and employ intimidation short of armed conflict (Dava, 2026a; Dava, 2026c).

The Philippine response also remained consistent: maintain presence, support fisherfolk, pursue transparency, deepen alliances, and keep diplomatic channels open (PNA, 2026b; Reuters, 2026).

The operational reality is clear. Activities that should be routine—fishing, patrol, and resupply—continue to require sustained state support and carry elevated risk.

References

Dava, B. (2026a, March 20). Chinese forces fire flares near PCG aircraft over Mischief Reef. ABS-CBN News.

Dava, B. (2026b, March 26). PH Navy ship averts collision with Chinese warship near Pag-asa. ABS-CBN News.

Dava, B. (2026c, March 23). China “clearing ops” at Bajo de Masinloc meant to intimidate Filipino fishermen – PCG. ABS-CBN News.

Philippine Coast Guard. (2026, March 27). Towing operation conducted at Bajo de Masinloc [Facebook post].

Philippine News Agency. (2026a, March 20). Chinese vessel uses fire-control radar on PH Navy ship.

Philippine News Agency. (2026b, March 27). PH, China resume bilateral talks on South China Sea.

Philippine News Agency. (2026c, March 27). PH Navy vessel avoids collision with Chinese warship.

Philippine News Agency. (2026d, March 21). PH-US maritime cooperative activity conducted.

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). (2026a, March 23). Termination of northeast monsoon.

PAGASA. (2026b, March 27). Weekly weather outlook.

PAGASA. (2026c, March 27). Gale warning status.

PAGASA. (2026d, March 27). Tropical cyclone monitoring update.

Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). (2026a, March 27). Earthquake information.

PHIVOLCS. (2026b, March 5). Tsunami information.

Reuters. (2026, March 27). Philippines, France sign military pact amid South China Sea tensions.

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