By Cliff Potts, CSO, and Editor-in-Chief of WPS News
Baybay City, Leyte, Philippines — January 23, 2026
What Is Known
Across Asia, Africa, Latin America, and parts of the Middle East, governments are recalibrating their foreign, economic, and security policies. Trade is increasingly diversified. Diplomatic engagement is more transactional. Regional organizations are taking on greater importance relative to global institutions dominated by Western powers.
This shift did not begin recently. It has accelerated over the past decade as repeated global shocks—the financial crisis, the pandemic, prolonged conflicts, and supply-chain disruptions—exposed the limits of existing international arrangements.
Western governments continue to describe the global order as rules-based and inclusive. Many countries in the Global South now treat those claims cautiously, based on experience rather than rhetoric.
What Has Changed in Practice
Historically, many developing states aligned their long-term planning with Western priorities, institutions, and timelines. Aid, investment, and security guarantees were often conditioned on political alignment.
That assumption is weakening.
Countries now pursue parallel relationships: engaging the United States and Europe where useful, while deepening ties with China, regional neighbors, and non-Western financial institutions. This is not ideological realignment. It is risk management.
From a policy perspective, the Global South is optimizing for optionality rather than loyalty.
Analysis: Multipolar Behavior, Not Anti-Westernism
The current shift is often mischaracterized as a rejection of the West. It is more accurately described as a rejection of dependence.
States that have experienced delayed aid, inconsistent security support, or shifting Western priorities are building redundancy into their strategies. Infrastructure financing, energy partnerships, and defense procurement are diversified to reduce exposure to any single external actor.
From Southeast Asia, this behavior is particularly visible. Countries maintain formal alliances while quietly preparing for scenarios in which those alliances may be constrained by domestic politics elsewhere.
This approach reflects realism, not hostility.
Credibility and Memory
Policy credibility is cumulative. So is memory.
Many countries recall interventions that were launched quickly and exited unevenly. They remember sanctions applied selectively, and international rules enforced inconsistently. These experiences inform present decisions.
As a result, Western appeals to shared values carry less weight than demonstrable reliability. Commitments are evaluated based on follow-through, not framing.
In this environment, influence is earned incrementally and lost quietly.
Why Timing Matters
The Global South is not waiting for Western systems to reform themselves.
Demographics, urbanization, and economic growth in non-Western regions are proceeding regardless of debates in Washington, Brussels, or London. Infrastructure is being built. Regional supply chains are forming. Digital governance models are diverging.
By the time Western institutions fully acknowledge these shifts, many strategic decisions will already be locked in.
What Comes Next
The emerging global order will not be defined by a single replacement hegemon. It will be fragmented, negotiated, and uneven.
For the West, the question is not whether it remains relevant, but how it engages a world that no longer orients itself automatically around Western leadership.
For the Global South, the objective is clear: maximize autonomy, minimize vulnerability, and move forward without waiting for permission.
For more social commentary, please see Occupy 2.5 at https://Occupy25.com
This essay is archived as part of the ongoing WPS News Monthly Brief Series available through Amazon.
References
Acharya, A. (2018). The End of American World Order. Polity Press.
World Bank. (2024). Global Economic Prospects. World Bank Group.
UN Conference on Trade and Development. (2023). Trade and Development Report.
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