By Cliff Potts
Baybay City, Leyte, Philippines — June 22, 2026
One of the persistent puzzles in political economy is why societies sometimes fail to make reforms that could stabilize their institutions before crisis occurs. Economists, sociologists, and historians have repeatedly observed that the people most capable of implementing such reforms are often the ones most reluctant to pursue them.
The reason is not always malice or conspiracy. In many cases, it is fear—specifically the fear that reform will destroy the status, wealth, or security of those currently benefiting from the system.
This dynamic has been recognized for more than a century.
Thorstein Veblen argued that elites frequently act to preserve social hierarchy and status even when doing so undermines broader economic stability. In The Theory of the Leisure Class, Veblen wrote that systems of status often encourage behavior aimed at preserving prestige rather than promoting collective welfare (Veblen, 1899).
Political economist Mancur Olson later described how powerful groups accumulate influence over time and begin resisting structural reforms. Olson warned that entrenched interests tend to block policies that would benefit society as a whole if those policies threaten their established advantages (Olson, 1982).
More recently, economists Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson argued that ruling groups frequently resist institutional change even when reforms might stabilize the system. According to Acemoglu and Robinson, elites often fear that reforms will weaken their relative power, so they maintain arrangements that eventually produce economic stagnation or political crisis (Acemoglu & Robinson, 2012).
These patterns appear repeatedly throughout history.
The United States itself offers a striking example. In 1911, the Supreme Court ordered the breakup of John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil monopoly under antitrust law. The company was divided into multiple independent firms, including Standard Oil of New Jersey, Standard Oil of New York, and Standard Oil of California.
Contrary to fears that such reform would destroy wealth, Rockefeller remained extraordinarily rich. Because he owned shares in the successor companies, his total wealth actually increased as those firms grew independently (Chernow, 1998).
The episode illustrates a broader point: structural reform does not necessarily destroy the fortunes of those at the top. In some cases it can expand the economy while maintaining the prosperity of existing elites.
Yet the fear of losing position remains powerful.
Albert O. Hirschman documented this phenomenon in The Rhetoric of Reaction, where he described a recurring argument used to resist reform. According to Hirschman, opponents frequently claim that any attempt to change existing institutions will backfire or destroy the system itself (Hirschman, 1991).
These fears can become self-reinforcing. When influential groups believe reform threatens their status, they resist change. That resistance allows underlying problems to worsen, making future reform more difficult.
The pattern can also create what sociologists call self-fulfilling expectations.
When individuals or groups become convinced that collapse is inevitable, they often begin preparing to survive independently rather than cooperating to stabilize the system. Such behavior can weaken the institutions and trust required to prevent the very collapse they fear.
History offers many examples of societies that drifted toward crisis not because the necessary reforms were unknown, but because the groups with the power to implement them feared the consequences of change.
In such cases, the problem is not ignorance. It is hesitation.
The challenge facing any complex society is recognizing when preserving the status quo becomes more dangerous than reforming it. When that moment arrives, the choice is not between stability and change.
The choice is between reform today or crisis tomorrow.
References
Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2012). Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty. New York: Crown.
Chernow, R. (1998). Titan: The Life of John D. Rockefeller, Sr. New York: Random House.
Hirschman, A. O. (1991). The Rhetoric of Reaction: Perversity, Futility, Jeopardy. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Olson, M. (1982). The Rise and Decline of Nations: Economic Growth, Stagflation, and Social Rigidities. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Veblen, T. (1899). The Theory of the Leisure Class. New York: Macmillan.
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