To the Chinese Embassy: The Arbitration Is Over

By Cliff Potts, CSO, and Editor-in-Chief of WPS News

Baybay City, Leyte, Philippines — May 17, 2026

The Chinese government continues to assert that the region internationally recognized as the West Philippine Sea belongs to China under the so-called “Nine-Dash Line.” That position was reviewed by an international court of arbitration under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. China participated in the broader UNCLOS framework and was fully aware of the process. The ruling did not go China’s way.

In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled clearly that China’s sweeping historical claims inside the Nine-Dash Line had no legal basis under international law. The ruling also affirmed that features claimed by China in the Spratly Islands did not generate the maritime entitlements Beijing claimed they did. The ruling was not vague. It was not partial. It was direct.

China rejected the ruling politically, but rejection does not erase the ruling itself.

That is the current and continuing state of affairs in the West Philippine Sea.

The Philippines does not have the military power to force China out of disputed waters. China clearly has the ability to place ships, coast guard cutters, maritime militia vessels, and naval forces throughout the region. But physical presence and legal standing are not the same thing. A larger navy does not automatically create lawful ownership.

The tragedy here is that there remains a path available that could benefit both countries.

The West Philippine Sea contains fisheries, shipping lanes, and potentially enormous energy resources. China remains heavily dependent on imported energy resources flowing through vulnerable maritime routes from the Middle East and elsewhere. The Philippines remains energy-hungry and economically constrained by high costs and uneven infrastructure development. Cooperation between neighbors could create stability, investment, and shared prosperity for both sides.

Instead, the region operates under constant tension.

Filipino fishermen operate under pressure inside waters internationally recognized as part of the Philippine exclusive economic zone. Coast guard standoffs continue. Gray-zone operations continue. The normalization of pressure continues. Every new confrontation further damages regional trust.

And that is the central problem now: trust.

Trust is not created through declarations. It is not created through state media messaging. It is not created through larger fleets. Trust is built through predictable behavior over time.

Right now, China has a trust deficit throughout much of the region.

That deficit did not appear overnight. It emerged from years of maritime confrontations, coercive patrols, militarized artificial islands, aggressive maneuvering, and the repeated dismissal of international legal rulings when they proved politically inconvenient.

China still has the option to pursue a different path.

A cooperative China that works with its neighbors under mutually recognized legal frameworks could become one of the dominant economic engines of the 21st century. A China that chooses intimidation as a permanent regional operating model will continue generating balancing coalitions against itself throughout Asia and the Pacific.

The Philippines is not going away. Neither is China.

At some point, both countries will either learn to build stable working relationships based on law and negotiated cooperation, or they will remain trapped inside an endless cycle of maritime confrontation that benefits nobody except defense contractors and nationalist politicians.

The arbitration ruling already exists. The legal argument is settled internationally whether Beijing likes the outcome or not.

The remaining question is whether China wishes to remain feared, or become trusted.

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References

Permanent Court of Arbitration. (2016). The South China Sea Arbitration Award (Philippines v. China). https://pca-cpa.org/en/cases/7/

United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. (1982). UNCLOS treaty text. United Nations. https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf

Reuters. (2026, May 15). Japan considers missile exports to the Philippines, NHK reports. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-considering-missile-exports-philippines-nhk-reports-2026-05-14/