WPS: Eerie Calm in West Philippine Sea Raises Questions (October 31 – November 26, 2024)

Baybay City, Philippines – November 26, 2024 – An unsettling quiet has settled over the West Philippine Sea (WPS) in the past month (October 31 – November 26, 2024). While tensions over territorial claims and resource exploitation simmer just beneath the surface, a review of open-source intelligence (OSINT), social media monitoring, official pronouncements, and credible news sources reveals a period devoid of major incidents. This lack of activity, however, has some observers feeling uneasy, reminiscent of the “calm before the storm.”

Scrutinizing the Quiet

Satellite imagery paints a picture of normalcy in the contested waters near Scarborough Shoal, Second Thomas Shoal, and the broader South China Sea. Social media, often abuzz with discussions on the WPS, has shown no recurring themes or confirmed reports of confrontations between vessels.

Official Statements Offer Few Clues

The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) hasn’t issued any press releases detailing maritime encounters or incidents within the WPS since late October. Similarly, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) has remained silent on the matter. This lack of official pronouncements could signify a period without major events requiring public updates.

Credible News Sources Reflect the Calm

A thorough search of major Philippine news outlets produced no reports of maritime incidents or heightened tensions in the WPS between October 31 and November 26.

Is the Calm Ominous?

The absence of recent incidents shouldn’t be misconstrued as a permanent solution. The underlying geopolitical realities remain unchanged. This quiet period, as some experts suggest, could be a sign of several things:

• Diplomatic Maneuvering: Behind-the-scenes negotiations between countries involved in the South China Sea dispute could be laying the groundwork for future actions or agreements.
• Military Buildup: A potential increase in military presence by involved nations in the region could be underway, in preparation for potential conflicts.
• Waiting for the Right Moment: A strategic pause by a major player, waiting for a strategic opportunity to assert its claims or challenge the status quo, is also a possibility.

The Evolving Landscape of the South China Sea

While the “Alas, Babylon” scenario, where a seemingly peaceful period precedes a sudden crisis, serves as a cautionary tale, it’s important to recognize the differences between the Cold War era and the present. Open communication channels, international organizations, and a more interconnected world can help mitigate the risks of immediate escalation.

A Noteworthy Ominous Sign

Today’s headline, “Ex-president Duterte to military: Protect Constitution amid ‘fractured’ govt,” adds another layer of concern. The assertion of a “fractured” government, when no such obvious fracture exists, raises questions about underlying political tensions and potential instability. Such internal strife could influence foreign policy decisions and impact the region’s security landscape.

WPS.News Remains Vigilant

The lack of recent incidents shouldn’t lull us into a false sense of security. WPS.News will continue to monitor the situation closely. We encourage readers to seek information from credible sources and official pronouncements to stay informed about developments in the WPS. The future of the West Philippine Sea may hinge on our collective vigilance and understanding of the complex dynamics at play.