Baybay City, Philippines | March 12, 2025 12:51 PM

The streets of Manila buzzed with tension as the International Criminal Court (ICC) finally nabbed former President Rodrigo Duterte, arresting him on charges of crimes against humanity stemming from his notorious war on drugs. The arrest, executed by the Philippine National Police (PNP) on March 11, 2025, at Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA), saw the controversial leader whisked away to The Hague, a turn of events that many in the Philippines are grappling with.

“Duterte, once hailed as ‘The Punisher,’ is now facing the very consequences he evaded for so long,” said Bryony Lau, deputy Asia director at Human Rights Watch, describing his arrest as “a long-overdue victory against impunity” (Human Rights Watch). The accusations? That during his presidency from 2016 to 2022, Duterte presided over a deadly crackdown on drugs that left anywhere between 6,000 and 30,000 people dead, according to various reports (Asia Sentinel).

As the rumors surrounding his arrest picked up steam, Duterte’s daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, boldly labeled the action “oppression and persecution,” suggesting the political motivations behind her father’s arrest (ABS-CBN News). The divisive Duterte-Marcos relationship had already frayed, particularly as Sara’s remarks took a sharp turn against the President, whom she accused of compromising Filipino sovereignty by complying with foreign requests (SunStar).

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. defended the government’s move to comply with Interpol, stating, “We did not help them in any way… The arrest was made in compliance with our commitments to Interpol” (SunStar). Yet, some critics and observers interpreted this compliance as a way to distance the current administration from the fallout of Duterte, who had built a significant political dynasty, creating a potential power vacuum in Philippine politics (Asia Sentinel).

In the backdrop of this unfolding saga, China has stepped into the arena, expressing concern over Duterte’s arrest, urging the ICC to avoid politicization (ABS-CBN News). The Chinese government, whose influence in the region is increasingly felt, appears to be wielding this situation as a way to undermine Marcos Jr. and his robust support for U.S. ties, particularly regarding ongoing tensions in the West Philippine Sea, where Marcos has taken a strong stand against Chinese aggressions (Asia Sentinel).

Political analysts suggest that any unrest incited by external entities like China could drive a wedge between Marcos Jr. and his supporters, which stands at an impressive 75% according to recent surveys (SunStar). The consequences of changing public sentiment could swing the narrative against Marcos, potentially eroding the support for his policies aimed at taking a firmer stance against Chinese actions in the region (Asia Sentinel).

However, mainstream media outlets currently do not reflect signs of Marcos losing favor among the general populace. Anticipating political backlash due to the Duterte arrest, several citizens have voiced concerns regarding the government’s direction, albeit quietly, noting that the perceived loss of sovereignty might incite discontent among supporters who previously rallied around Marcos’s policies (personal interviews).

As the drama unfolds with Duterte now in ICC custody, questions loom over the future political landscape of the Philippines. Will Marcos’s government maintain its support amid the rising scrutiny, or will the specter of Duterte’s arrest incite unrest among his loyal base? One thing is for sure: as the ICC prepares its case, the ripples of this arrest will be felt far and wide in a nation still grappling with the ghosts of its political past.

The coming weeks are poised to be tumultuous; the stakes have never been higher for the Philippine government, its leaders, and the citizens they serve. In the face of political dynasties and emerging threats from foreign powers, the Philippines stands at a crossroads, with the memory of Duterte looming large.

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