The High Stakes

A U.S. Attack on Iran Under Trump

As tensions escalate in the Middle East, the prospect of a U.S. military strike on Iran under President Donald Trump’s administration raises profound risks for the United States and the global community. Such an action, driven by concerns over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional influence, could ignite a cascade of geopolitical and economic consequences.

A U.S. attack on Iran risks triggering a broader regional conflict. Iran has threatened retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf and could disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20-25% of global crude passes (Atlantic Council, 2025). This could spike oil prices, with Brent crude potentially reaching $120-$130 per barrel, exacerbating global economic instability amid existing trade tensions (Atlantic Council, 2025). The U.S. economy, already navigating Trump’s tariff policies, could face stagflation, threatening global growth (The New York Times, 2025).

Geopolitically, an attack could strain U.S. alliances. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, wary of escalation, may distance themselves, while Iran’s partnerships with Russia and China could deepen, complicating global power dynamics (Middle East Institute, 2025). Iran’s potential sprint toward nuclear weaponization in response to strikes could further destabilize the region, forcing the U.S. into a prolonged military commitment (Foreign Policy, 2025). Domestic unrest in Iran might intensify, but regime change is uncertain, risking prolonged instability.

For the U.S., military engagement could erode public support, with polls showing 60% of Americans opposing involvement (The Washington Post, 2025). Globally, the conflict could undermine diplomatic efforts, derail nuclear talks, and weaken international norms against sovereignty violations (The Guardian, 2025). The world faces a precarious future if diplomacy fails to temper this volatile trajectory.

References
Atlantic Council. (2025, June 13). Experts react: Israel just attacked Iran’s nuclear sites. http://www.atlanticcouncil.org
Foreign Policy. (2025, March 27). Iran nuclear program: What would a military strike mean? http://www.foreignpolicy.com
Middle East Institute. (2025, January 30). Beyond “maximum pressure” in U.S. policy on Iran. http://www.mei.edu
The Guardian. (2025, June 17). Israel-Iran conflict at critical juncture. http://www.theguardian.com
The New York Times. (2025, June 14). How the Israel-Iran conflict could spiral. http://www.nytimes.com
The Washington Post. (2025, June 18). Trump demands Iran’s ‘unconditional surrender.’ http://www.washingtonpost.com