EEZ Blockades

Philippines Faces Escalating Tensions with China

The Philippines has faced repeated provocations from China within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), with incidents involving Chinese Coast Guard vessels blocking Philippine ships, firing water cannons, and conducting unauthorized activities (Reuters, 2025; Al Jazeera, 2025). These actions, including a May 2025 incident where a Chinese research vessel operated illegally near Ilocos, challenge Manila’s sovereignty under international law, as affirmed by the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling invalidating China’s South China Sea claims (Reuters, 2025). Despite these violations, the Philippines has not pursued direct military action against China, raising questions about its strategy and resolve.

Several factors deter Manila from military escalation. First, China’s military superiority, underscored by its deployment of aircraft carriers like the Liaoning and Shandong near Philippine waters, poses a significant risk (The War Zone, 2025). The Philippines, with limited naval and air capabilities, relies heavily on its Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States, which has been spotlighted amid rising tensions (CBS News, 2025). However, invoking this treaty requires careful consideration, as it could draw the U.S. into a broader conflict, potentially destabilizing the region.

Second, Manila prioritizes diplomacy and international support to counter China’s actions. Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro has emphasized “international resonance” and capability-building, including joint exercises with allies like the U.S. and Japan (Newsweek, 2025). The Philippines has filed over 150 diplomatic protests under President Marcos Jr., reflecting a strategy of restraint to avoid escalation while asserting rights (GMA News, 2025).

Fear may play a role, but strategic caution is more accurate. Direct military action would require overwhelming provocation, such as sustained attacks on Philippine forces, and stronger assurances of allied support. For now, Manila balances restraint with resilience, leveraging alliances to deter China without sparking conflict.

References
Al Jazeera. (2025, May 22). Philippines accuses China of ‘aggressive’ tactics in South China Sea. https://www.aljazeera.com
CBS News. (2025, June 16). Conflict between China, Philippines could involve U.S. https://www.cbsnews.com
GMA News. (2025, June 1). PCG challenges China Coast Guard vessel off Zambales. https://www.gmanetwork.com
Newsweek. (2025, June 17). US ally doubles down on missiles angering China. https://www.newsweek.com
Reuters. (2025, May 5). Philippine coast guard says China ship conducting illegal survey within EEZ. https://www.reuters.com
The War Zone. (2025, June 10). Two Chinese aircraft carriers operating beyond the first island chain. https://www.twz.com