By WPS News Special Correspondents

3–4 minutes

As of June 27, 2025, President Donald Trump, inaugurated for a second term on January 20, has already taken the United States into direct military confrontation with Iran. On June 22, U.S. forces launched Operation Midnight Hammer, striking Iran’s nuclear sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan with B-2 bombers and Tomahawk missiles. This move followed Israeli raids on June 13 that targeted Iranian missile and nuclear infrastructure, escalating an already tense regional conflict.

The idea that “nothing will happen” is no longer plausible. Trump’s June 22 strikes were the first direct U.S. military attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, framed by the administration as necessary to “obliterate” Iran’s nuclear capacity and enforce red lines. Early reports show significant damage, but intelligence assessments suggest Iran’s program may only be set back by a few months. Iran’s scientific expertise and decentralized enrichment capabilities mean reconstruction is likely. Meanwhile, Trump declared the operation an overwhelming success and threatened “regime change” if Iran refused to make peace.

Iran responded on June 23 with missile and drone strikes against the U.S. Al Udeid airbase in Qatar, resulting in no confirmed American casualties. Trump quickly dismissed the attack as weak while simultaneously calling for Iran to negotiate. Global reaction was divided: U.N. Security Council members demanded restraint, while Israel praised the U.S. strikes as a vital defense of regional stability. The potential for further escalation remains high, with Iran threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz and warning of retaliatory action through regional proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis.

Looking ahead to the rest of 2025, my prediction is that Trump will continue along this escalatory path. At least one more U.S. strike is likely before December, whether through airpower, drones, or cyber operations, especially if Iran or its proxies strike U.S. forces or allies. Trump’s team will avoid large-scale ground deployments, but will pursue what they call “overwhelming deterrence.” Back-channel negotiations, possibly mediated by Oman or other Gulf states, will continue quietly in hopes of forcing Iran to limit enrichment, but prospects for a comprehensive deal look dim.

Meanwhile, Congress is increasingly divided. Republicans and some hawkish Democrats support Trump’s hard line, while Senate Democrats are calling for war-powers debates and formal authorization votes. There is real risk that the U.S. could slide into a sustained, low-level conflict with Iran’s regional network, even if Washington avoids formally declaring war. The Biden-era strategy of managing tensions through diplomacy and sanctions has been replaced by a high-risk military gamble that could reshape the Gulf balance of power.

If you’re reading this months or years later, consider: Did Trump’s initial strike prove decisive? Did it prevent Iran’s nuclear progress or provoke a wider war? Was there a second or third U.S. strike? Did Congress reassert control? The answers will reveal whether America’s 2025 Iran policy was a strategic masterstroke or another reckless plunge into Middle East chaos. Let’s see how this ages.

References

  • Council on Foreign Relations. (2025, June 23). Trump’s Iran Attack Was Impressive, but Airpower Has Its Limits.
  • Mills, A., Hafezi, P., & Cornwell, A. (2025, June 23). Iran fires missiles at US base in Qatar, Trump calls for peace. Reuters.
  • Reuters. (2025, June 22). US warns against Iran retaliation as Trump raises ‘regime change’. Reuters.
  • Reuters. (2025, June 22). Satellite images indicate severe damage to Fordow, but doubts remain. Reuters.
  • Reuters. (2025, June 23). US strikes failed to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites, intelligence report says. Reuters.
  • Reuters. (2025, June 23). Iranian retaliation against U.S. forces could come soon, U.S. officials say. Reuters.
  • Institute for the Study of War. (2025, June 26). Iran Update, June 26, 2025.
  • Prince Holding Falcon, made Iran by The Metropolitan Museum of Art is licensed under CC-CC0 1.0

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