By Cliff Potts, CSO, and Editor-in-Chief of WPS News

Baybay City, Leyte, Philippines — September 29, 2026

The Problem: Small Changes Are Easy to Overlook

Not all changes are dramatic.

In the maritime environment, many developments occur gradually. Individual actions may appear minor when viewed in isolation. Over time, however, these small adjustments accumulate.

Incremental change can alter conditions without drawing immediate attention.

What Incremental Change Means

Incremental change refers to gradual shifts in conditions over time.

This includes:

  • Slight adjustments in vessel positioning
  • Repeated presence in specific areas
  • Minor variations in operational behavior
  • Progressive normalization of activity

Each individual change may be limited. The cumulative effect is not.

Current Operating Conditions

Observed patterns in the West Philippine Sea include:

  • Repeated activity in the same operational areas
  • Gradual shifts in positioning over extended periods
  • Increasing familiarity with operating patterns
  • Continued interaction at close distances

These conditions support incremental change.

How Incremental Change Accumulates

Change becomes significant through repetition.

If an action is:

  • Conducted consistently
  • Maintained over time
  • Left unchallenged

it can shift expectations and operational realities.

The effect is gradual but persistent.

Relationship to Salami Slicing

Incremental change is often associated with what is commonly described as “salami slicing.”

This refers to:

  • Small, sequential actions
  • Each step appearing limited
  • The overall effect becoming substantial over time

While individual actions may not trigger strong responses, their cumulative impact can be significant.

Why It Is Difficult to Address

Incremental change presents challenges.

  • Individual actions may not justify escalation
  • Responses may appear disproportionate to the immediate action
  • Attention may shift before cumulative effects are recognized

This creates a gap between action and response.

Interaction With Normalization

Normalization reinforces incremental change.

Repeated activity becomes expected. What was once unusual becomes routine. This reduces visibility and lowers perceived urgency.

Normalization supports gradual shifts.

Limits and Constraints

Incremental change is not unlimited.

  • Physical constraints affect positioning
  • Operational limits affect frequency
  • External responses can interrupt patterns

However, within these limits, gradual change remains effective.

Bottom Line

In the West Philippine Sea, incremental change defines long-term outcomes.

Small, repeated actions accumulate over time, shifting conditions without dramatic events. Recognizing these patterns early allows for more effective response. Ignoring them allows gradual change to become established reality.

For more from Cliff Potts, see https://cliffpotts.org

If this work helps you understand what’s happening, help me keep it going: https://www.patreon.com/cw/WPSNews

Bateman, S. (2017). Maritime security and law enforcement in the South China Sea. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 39(2), 221–245.

Erickson, A. S., & Kennedy, C. (2016). China’s maritime militia. Center for Naval Analyses.

Permanent Court of Arbitration. (2016). South China Sea Arbitration Award (Philippines v. China).

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