Taiwan Is Not Far Away

By Cliff Potts, CSO, and Editor-in-Chief of WPS News

BAYBAY CITY, Leyte, June 19, 2026 — 2105 PHT

When many people hear discussions about Taiwan, they imagine a distant island caught in a dispute between great powers. For Americans, Europeans, and much of the world, Taiwan is a place on a map thousands of miles away.

For the Philippines, however, Taiwan is not far away at all.

Taiwan sits just north of Batanes. The waters separating Taiwan from the Philippines are narrow enough that any major military conflict in the area would immediately affect the security, economy, and future of the Philippine nation. That reality deserves far more attention than it often receives.

The Geography Cannot Be Ignored

The Luzon Strait, particularly the Bashi Channel between Taiwan and the Philippines, is one of the most strategically important waterways in the world.

Ships moving between the Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea pass through this corridor. Military planners from every major regional power understand its importance. In the event of a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, the Luzon Strait would likely become one of the primary areas of military activity.

Aircraft, naval vessels, submarines, surveillance systems, drones, and missile forces would all be concentrated in or around the region.

For residents of Batanes, the crisis would not be visible on television. It would be occurring just beyond the horizon.

The Philippines Would Not Be A Bystander

There remains a common misconception that the Philippines could simply stay out of a Taiwan crisis.

Unfortunately, geography does not permit such luxury.

More than 100,000 Filipinos live and work in Taiwan. Any conflict would immediately create concerns about evacuation, transportation, humanitarian support, and the safety of Filipino citizens abroad.

Government agencies would be forced to respond. Military planners would be forced to respond. Families throughout the Philippines would be forced to respond.

Regardless of political preferences, the Philippines would be affected from the first day of any major crisis.

Economic Consequences Would Reach Every Province

War does not have to arrive in a community to create hardship.

A disruption of shipping routes through the Luzon Strait would almost certainly affect fuel prices, transportation costs, imported goods, manufacturing supply chains, and regional commerce.

The Philippines imports many of the goods that keep its economy moving. Delays in shipping can quickly become shortages. Shortages become higher prices. Higher prices become burdens carried by ordinary families.

Residents of Manila would feel it.

Residents of Cebu would feel it.

Residents of Leyte and Samar would feel it.

Even those living hundreds of kilometers from the conflict zone would experience its consequences through their wallets, their businesses, and their daily lives.

The West Philippine Sea Is Part Of The Same Story

It is also important to recognize that Taiwan and the West Philippine Sea cannot be viewed entirely separately.

Chinese pressure against Philippine vessels has become a recurring reality. Maritime confrontations, water cannon incidents, disputed territorial claims, and expanding military activity have all contributed to rising tensions.

A crisis involving Taiwan would not emerge from nowhere.

It would occur within an already tense regional environment where sovereignty, maritime rights, and freedom of navigation remain active concerns.

The same strategic pressures affecting Taiwan also influence events throughout the West Philippine Sea.

Preparedness Is Not Provocation

Discussing these risks is not an argument for war.

In fact, the opposite is true.

Understanding the consequences of conflict is one of the strongest arguments for preventing conflict. Nations that understand what is at stake are often more willing to pursue diplomacy, deterrence, and responsible planning.

The goal should always be peace.

The goal should always be stability.

The goal should always be avoiding a war that would bring suffering to millions of people throughout Asia and beyond.

Taiwan Is Right Next Door

For the Philippines, Taiwan is not a distant foreign policy issue.

It is a neighboring island whose security situation directly affects Philippine interests.

If China attempts to blockade Taiwan, the effects will not stop at Taiwan’s shores. The consequences would spread throughout the Luzon Strait, across the Philippine economy, into Filipino households, and throughout the wider Indo-Pacific region.

That is the reality of geography.

And geography does not care about politics.

It only cares about distance.

Taiwan is not far away.

For the Philippines, Taiwan is right next door.